Current Research
“The Civic Option? Using Experiments to Estimate the Effects of Consuming Information in Local Elections” (with Christopher S. Elmendorf and Scott A. MacKenzie) Under review.
Abstract: Political parties and civic organizations disseminate information to improve citizen decision making in local elections. Do citizens choose to consume such information and, if so, how does it affect their decisions? We conduct a survey experiment during a real-world local election that randomly assigns 1) political party endorsements, 2) a voter guide, 3) no information, or 4) a choice among these options. Respondents assigned to receive party endorsements and a voter guide are more likely than respondents receiving no information to choose candidates who share their policy views. When given a choice, a majority opts to receive information (including many with low levels of political interest), with most respondents preferring a voter guide. Using an instrumental variable approach, we show that the effect of information on those who choose to receive it is substantial. These results offer hope that voter education efforts can succeed despite widespread political disinterest.
“Ballot Box Representation: Spatial Voting and the Effects of Information in Direct Democracy Elections” (with Scott A. MacKenzie) Under review.
Abstract: In states and localities with direct democracy, citizens can advance their policy interests without the aid of elected officials. Research documenting citizens’ lack of political knowledge raises questions about their ability to do so. We conduct three studies during real-world direct democracy elections to determine whether citizens choose alternatives (the ballot proposal or status quo) that are closest to their ideological positions and whether political information helps them do so. Using original surveys, our first two studies estimate citizens’ ideological positions and show that citizens regularly choose alternatives that are closest to these positions. Using a survey experiment, our third study indicates that political information (party cues, policy information, and spatial maps) further improves such spatial voting. These results demonstrate citizens’ capacity to advance their policy interests in direct democracy elections and identify conditions under which political information strengthens the relationship between citizens’ policy interests and choices about ballot propositions.
“Police Violence and Public Opinion after George Floyd: How the Black Lives Matter Movement and Endorsements Affect Support for Reforms” (with Scott A. MacKenzie and Daniel J. Simmons) Under review.
Abstract: What factors shape public opinion about government solutions to address police violence? We address this question by conducting a survey in which respondents express their opinions about actual proposals to reform police practices. Within the survey, we randomly assign respondents to receive the positions of traditional supporters (black lawmakers) and/or opponents (law enforcement) of police reform efforts. Our results reveal broad bipartisan support for the proposals, but that information about groups that support or oppose these proposals polarizes partisans’ opinions. However, Democrats and even Republicans who support Black Lives Matter (BLM) express high levels of support for the proposals regardless of the information they receive. These results suggest that partisanship in the mass public is not necessarily a barrier to police reform efforts. A bipartisan majority of the public supports meaningful reforms, and any polarizing effects of elite signals are muted by Democrats’ and Republicans’ support for BLM.
“Party versus Principle: How Competing Parties and Frames Affect the Consistency between Citizens’ Values and Policy Views.” Under review.
Abstract: In representative democracies, political parties and candidates seek to influence public opinion by publicizing their policy positions and framing them to appeal to citizens’ values. What effects do these competing positions (i.e., party cues) and frames have on the consistency between citizens’ opinions and values? I address this question by conducting survey experiments where citizens express opinions about policies that involve a conflict between two values. I manipulate whether they receive party cues, competing frames, both, or neither type of information. I find that citizens do not blindly follow their party when its position is inconsistent with their values. Further, when their party’s inconsistent position is countered by a frame that resonates with their values, respondents follow the frame as long as it is not sponsored by the opposing party. These results identify conditions under which party cues and frames help citizens express opinions that are consistent with their values.
“Dissension in the Ranks? An Experimental Test of Rationality and Spatial Voting in Local Elections.” (with Christopher S. Elmendorf and Scott A. MacKenzie) Working paper, University of California, Davis.
Abstract: Formal theories of voter decision making assume that preferences for political candidates are rational and, therefore, can be represented by a utility function. They also frequently assume that ideology is a major factor that informs voters’ utility functions. To date, there are no studies of whether these assumptions are met in low-information local elections. We fill this gap by conducting a written exit poll during a mayoral election that asks voters to express their preferences for five leading candidates, considered pairwise. We also experimentally manipulate information shortcuts to examine their effects on voters’ preferences. We find that a large majority of voters’ preferences are rational even in this low-information context. We also show that ideology strongly influences voters’ preferences. However, political party and ethnic group endorsements weaken rather than strengthen the influence of ideology. These results indicate that most voters’ preferences satisfy the basic assumptions that formal models make and that spatial models can be usefully applied to local elections.
Abstract: Political parties and civic organizations disseminate information to improve citizen decision making in local elections. Do citizens choose to consume such information and, if so, how does it affect their decisions? We conduct a survey experiment during a real-world local election that randomly assigns 1) political party endorsements, 2) a voter guide, 3) no information, or 4) a choice among these options. Respondents assigned to receive party endorsements and a voter guide are more likely than respondents receiving no information to choose candidates who share their policy views. When given a choice, a majority opts to receive information (including many with low levels of political interest), with most respondents preferring a voter guide. Using an instrumental variable approach, we show that the effect of information on those who choose to receive it is substantial. These results offer hope that voter education efforts can succeed despite widespread political disinterest.
“Ballot Box Representation: Spatial Voting and the Effects of Information in Direct Democracy Elections” (with Scott A. MacKenzie) Under review.
Abstract: In states and localities with direct democracy, citizens can advance their policy interests without the aid of elected officials. Research documenting citizens’ lack of political knowledge raises questions about their ability to do so. We conduct three studies during real-world direct democracy elections to determine whether citizens choose alternatives (the ballot proposal or status quo) that are closest to their ideological positions and whether political information helps them do so. Using original surveys, our first two studies estimate citizens’ ideological positions and show that citizens regularly choose alternatives that are closest to these positions. Using a survey experiment, our third study indicates that political information (party cues, policy information, and spatial maps) further improves such spatial voting. These results demonstrate citizens’ capacity to advance their policy interests in direct democracy elections and identify conditions under which political information strengthens the relationship between citizens’ policy interests and choices about ballot propositions.
“Police Violence and Public Opinion after George Floyd: How the Black Lives Matter Movement and Endorsements Affect Support for Reforms” (with Scott A. MacKenzie and Daniel J. Simmons) Under review.
Abstract: What factors shape public opinion about government solutions to address police violence? We address this question by conducting a survey in which respondents express their opinions about actual proposals to reform police practices. Within the survey, we randomly assign respondents to receive the positions of traditional supporters (black lawmakers) and/or opponents (law enforcement) of police reform efforts. Our results reveal broad bipartisan support for the proposals, but that information about groups that support or oppose these proposals polarizes partisans’ opinions. However, Democrats and even Republicans who support Black Lives Matter (BLM) express high levels of support for the proposals regardless of the information they receive. These results suggest that partisanship in the mass public is not necessarily a barrier to police reform efforts. A bipartisan majority of the public supports meaningful reforms, and any polarizing effects of elite signals are muted by Democrats’ and Republicans’ support for BLM.
“Party versus Principle: How Competing Parties and Frames Affect the Consistency between Citizens’ Values and Policy Views.” Under review.
Abstract: In representative democracies, political parties and candidates seek to influence public opinion by publicizing their policy positions and framing them to appeal to citizens’ values. What effects do these competing positions (i.e., party cues) and frames have on the consistency between citizens’ opinions and values? I address this question by conducting survey experiments where citizens express opinions about policies that involve a conflict between two values. I manipulate whether they receive party cues, competing frames, both, or neither type of information. I find that citizens do not blindly follow their party when its position is inconsistent with their values. Further, when their party’s inconsistent position is countered by a frame that resonates with their values, respondents follow the frame as long as it is not sponsored by the opposing party. These results identify conditions under which party cues and frames help citizens express opinions that are consistent with their values.
“Dissension in the Ranks? An Experimental Test of Rationality and Spatial Voting in Local Elections.” (with Christopher S. Elmendorf and Scott A. MacKenzie) Working paper, University of California, Davis.
Abstract: Formal theories of voter decision making assume that preferences for political candidates are rational and, therefore, can be represented by a utility function. They also frequently assume that ideology is a major factor that informs voters’ utility functions. To date, there are no studies of whether these assumptions are met in low-information local elections. We fill this gap by conducting a written exit poll during a mayoral election that asks voters to express their preferences for five leading candidates, considered pairwise. We also experimentally manipulate information shortcuts to examine their effects on voters’ preferences. We find that a large majority of voters’ preferences are rational even in this low-information context. We also show that ideology strongly influences voters’ preferences. However, political party and ethnic group endorsements weaken rather than strengthen the influence of ideology. These results indicate that most voters’ preferences satisfy the basic assumptions that formal models make and that spatial models can be usefully applied to local elections.